Using five historical examples of contingency operations, the Philippine Insurrection, Post-WW II Germany and Austria, Post-WWII Japan, the Malayan Emergency (British), and the Balkans conflict, the author determines key factors that affect the decision of how many soldiers should be employed in a contingency operation. He looks at geography, population density, terrain, availability and location of non-indigenous forces, and availability of indigenous or substitute forces, i.e., local police or military, or contractors. The author also studies five large metro police departments from around the United States to identify those factors that affect how many police are deployed to provide law enforcement support to communities. Many post-conflict contingency operations are more law enforcement and peacekeeping than combat. Therefore, the analysis of municipal police departments provides an overlay of factors to be considered when police actions are a part of a contingency operation.

 

Finally, the author uses the identified set of factors based on historical examples to study the current conflict in Iraq. The number of troops on the ground in Iraq has recently been a hotly debated issue as soldiers continue to fight the insurgency in that country. This analysis is pertinent to that current conflict. While this analysis is not the panacea for determining the number of soldiers that should be present for a contingency operation, it does provide a list of factors that military analysts and planners should consider as they make their decisions.